220. Election Polls, Smart Risks and Dumb Mistakes

Lessons from Bad Polling Forecasts

Massive money was spent on polls and flipping Republican senate seats. Alas, no Blue Wave happened. Key lessons:

  1. Models – based on past results for a complex, ever-changing system – don’t accurately predict the future.
  2. Money wasted on “dumb bets” (like the $300MM democrats spent trying to flip 5 Republican senate seats unsuccessfully) can’t also be invested into smarter risks.
  3. If you want to get rich, you must have vital information – about stable systems – that no one else has and upon which you can act.

Continue reading 220. Election Polls, Smart Risks and Dumb Mistakes

219. The Needs For Speed Vary By Customer Niche

In General: Sooner is Better

When buying a commodity – with all factors being equal – quicker delivery or answers win.

Entire business niches have been created/dominated by fastest response (e.g. Dominos Pizzas). The fastest delivery is: already there! Think of – just in case, curated SKUs – stored in special cabinets or vending machines. (Who pays or shares in the cost of both the upfront design solution and inventory investment is negotiable).

Continue reading 219. The Needs For Speed Vary By Customer Niche

218. Redesign Warehouse: Value Productivity and Pay Or Lose

Warehouse Wage-War News

What’s driving this hourly-labor, news stream?

  1. Oct 2018: Amazon (which sets the bar) upped the ante for warehouse workers (and Delivery Partner drivers) to $15/hr. plus benefits. And, Bernie Sanders applauded!
  2. July 2019: AMZ announces a $700MM training budget to advance, self-selected warehouse workers to: better, technical-jobs, career paths.

Continue reading 218. Redesign Warehouse: Value Productivity and Pay Or Lose

217. “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT; Magic Money Tree) Effects?

Post Inauguration Day (1/20/21) Stimulus “Solution”? 

Both presidential candidates have promised lots – including big, pandemic, stimulus bills – “after the election”. What will be this free-lunch formula?

  1. The government issues another $3+ Trillion in government bonds.
  2. Smart investors won’t buy these bonds at near zero-percent interest. So, the Fed will print a similar amount of new dollars out of thin air to buy the bonds (through banks as intermediaries).
  3. This loan from our kids and grandkids will then be sent out to voters to spend and lobbyist clients (financial re-engineers) to bail them out of their zombie investments along with fees.

Continue reading 217. “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT; Magic Money Tree) Effects?