Monthly Archives: November 2020

220. Election Polls, Smart Risks and Dumb Mistakes

Core Renewal, Line Item Profit Analytics, LIPA

Lessons from Bad Polling Forecasts

Massive money was spent on polls and flipping Republican senate seats. Alas, no Blue Wave happened. Key lessons:

  1. Models – based on past results for a complex, ever-changing system – don’t accurately predict the future.
  2. Money wasted on “dumb bets” (like the $300MM democrats spent trying to flip 5 Republican senate seats unsuccessfully) can’t also be invested into smarter risks.
  3. If you want to get rich, you must have vital information – about stable systems – that no one else has and upon which you can act.

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219. The Needs For Speed Vary By Customer Niche

Concierge Customer Service, Cost-to-Serve Math, Index

In General: Sooner is Better

When buying a commodity – with all factors being equal – quicker delivery or answers win.

Entire business niches have been created/dominated by fastest response (e.g. Dominos Pizzas). The fastest delivery is: already there! Think of – just in case, curated SKUs – stored in special cabinets or vending machines. (Who pays or shares in the cost of both the upfront design solution and inventory investment is negotiable).

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