201. Your Hurricane-Cone-Forecasting Plans

A “Hurricane Cone”?

Go to google images and search for: “hurricane cone forecast Katrina”. You will find meteorologists’ best guesses as to where that volatile killer might go during its next 7 days. With too many independent variables interacting too intensely, uncertainty reigns.

Every CEO on the planet is currently within the eye of an unprecedented, monster, economic hurricane.

The Current, Independent, Interactive Variables (June 2020):

  1. We were in a global, everything bubble (on life support from Central Banks) looking for a pin. The global GDP could not sustain its accumulated debt, unfunded-pensions and social programs with aging demographics.
  2. Trade wars and de-globalization were and continue to escalate.
  3. March ’20: the C-19 pandemic (pin) hits the world. The virus still has its own, big unknowns that could affect everything again and again.
  4. Politicians shut down all global economies. Central banks are printing whatever it takes. With these bureaucrats micro-managing formerly free markets what big, negative surprises will emerge?
  5. eCommerce behavior trends accelerate 5 years in 75 days. Amazon innovates into the C-19 supplies (and testing) space. How will they encroach on your channel next?
  6. Dynamic, balanced economies (like Humpty D.) don’t reboot, and re-knit easily or smoothly, especially with new C-19: rules and hobbled business models. What will happen to: airline hubs; vacation rentals; college economics; restaurants with 25-50% capacity; etc.?
  7. George Floyd’s murder video sparks 13 days of protests in 400 cities that has now gone global. What will emerge from a summer (?) of social unrest?
  8. Major elections Nov. 3rd. What audacities might Trump try?
  9. If the democrats sweep, what will the new, New Deal, look like?

What to Do?

  1. Don’t seek certainty by reading everything and listening to experts’ forecasts. No one knows anything to bank on.
  2. Do have three contingency plans continually updated for – best, worst and likely- cases.
  3. Don’t: cut costs across the board; hide; and hope old ways return. You will blow your chance to co-create a better future out of the chaos.
  4. Do get the analytics to: “Downsize, Upgrade, Refocus, Renew and (digitally) Reinvent”: DURRR.
  5. DURRR requires using your own proprietary, high-leverage information: the rankings of top customers by both historic and future “net-profitability”. The why’s and how’s are all within my, now-recorded, 12-webinar series.
  6. Watch and discuss with all employees who are up for change.
  7. Be in touch with any journey questions: bruce@merrifield.com

Out-innovate most of your competitors that are just cutting costs and hoping.

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